Bad Beat, or Not

By Wesley R. Young

If you have been reading about and/or playing poker for any length of time at all, you have probably heard about a thousand supposed bad beat stories. It seems that everyone has at least a few stories, and to be honest, I am sick of hearing them. As a matter of fact, most of these supposed bad beats aren’t even what I consider a bad beat. So, what’s this have to do with you? By learning to recognize the difference between a true bad beat and simply losing a hand with only a small edge may help you control your emotions and become a better poker player. Here are a few examples to illustrate the difference.

I am in early position with AK and enter with a standard raise, it is folded to the button that has a small stack and moves all-in and I call. The button turns over QJs. I receive no help and my opponent hits a Queen on the river. While it is easy to see that my AK is a better hand than my opponents before the flop, this is not a bad beat in any way. Let’s take a look at the percentages. My pre-flop chance of winning is just over 60%. While this is not bad, it isn’t great either. Basically, if I am in this situation 10 times, I will win 6 and lose 4. What you need to understand is that I will take this situation any time I can because I will win more than I lose in the long run, but I also understand that I don’t have a huge advantage, so the 40% that I lose I won’t be bothered too much by. Now let’s take a look at a true bad beat.

After the turn the board shows 8s 9s 4d 2s and I have 5s 6s in my hand. I end up all in against one opponent who turns over As Js. Notice that in this situation there is only one card that can hit on the river to give me the win. The chance of the 7s landing on the river is less than 3%. When I hit the 7s, it would qualify as a bad beat in my book.

Most of us will let a bad beat alter our playing decisions at least a small amount. Hopefully with the information above, you will be able to change the way you look at these hands and avoid the poor decisions that can follow. Of course, even when you are on the receiving end of a true bad beat, you should try not to alter your play, but that is a subject for another day. Good luck at the tables!