Odds of What You'll Make on the Flop

As they say "this is where the rubber meets the road". The complexities of the game change drastically here.

A limper with a weak starting hand may have become strong. A flat caller with a weak starting hand may have just become strong enough to begin his chase to the river. The raiser may have lost all of his advantage or may have become unbeatable.

More than just your cards come into play. Position, pot odds and implied odds all come into the decision and start to take on an even more important role. Or at least they should.

Now it's time to think about your opponent's past play (why notes are very important) and how he is reacting to the flop. You should begin to see why having the patience to wait for strong pre flop hands is essential to your long term success.

Here is when the questions should begin going off in your head. How many players are in the hand? Who, if anyone raised pre flop and where are they in position to you? How many players are left to act behind you and lastly how much money is in the pot?

Position becomes critical here. If you are first to act, do you bluff, even with the nuts, or do you check and wait. If you check you must watch the reactions of the players behind you. Start to compare these actions to hands played previously.

Try and think about how the player has acted before and get a "read" on how strong his hand really is. More in No Limit than in Limit, sometimes a bet says more than a 1000 words.

If you have been patience and are strong to begin with, then got a good flop, always be thinking about how to maximize the amount of money you will win. Will a bet or a check raise scare your opponent away? If you do have the "nuts" and know you cannot be drawn out on, smooth calling is a good way to maximize your value. If on the other hand there is a possibility you will be out drawn, aggressiveness may head off a possible bad beat on the river.

There are many different ways to maximize the value of your hand, but there is really just one way to ruin a hand. That is to simply overplay it when you know you are now second best. Even if you had the patience and went in way ahead pre flop, there will be times when you are second after the flop. Now you need to start to think about the amount of "outs" you have and compare those odds with the pot odds.

DO NOT make the mistake in thinking the odds will change just because. They won't and they don't. If you are not in a good position to win, not wasting your bankroll in a poor situation, is almost as good as winning. Your time will come and you will have the hand, in the proper position, and you opponent will play into you. Then and only then, play with the aggression you have learned and maximize the value you know is there.

One of the greatest saying is from Doyle Brunson when talking about Limit Texas Holdem. He says "I've never seen a top player (we assume he meant winning) who is a "caller.

His point was if your judgment was strong to begin with you should always be in a position to be aggressive. In being aggressive you will not only win your share with the "nuts" you will ward off the potential of someone "catching" a draw on you on the river.